Bittime - Selling by Bitcoin miners could last four to six months after the halving, with a value of up to $5 billion, according to one analyst. The cryptocurrency market may face tough challenges after the upcoming Bitcoin halving, according to a study from 10x Research.
Massive Selling Expected After Halving
The report, written by 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen, estimates that Bitcoin miners could potentially liquidate $5 billion in BTC after the halving.
This selling could lead to “oversupply” in the market, potentially making Bitcoin prices move sideways over the next few months – similar to the pattern seen after previous halvings.
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Thielen was referring to the period following the 2020 halving, where Bitcoin prices hovered in the $9,000 to $11,500 range for five months.
With the halving predicted to occur around April 20, 2024, the analyst warned that a significant price rally may not be seen until around next October, if historical trends repeat themselves.
Miner Strategy and Impact on Altcoins
The report also discusses the strategy of miners who typically stockpile BTC ahead of the halving, which creates an imbalance between supply and demand, and drives prices up.
This trend was already visible in 2024, with BTC prices surging 74% to an all-time high of $73,734 on March 14 before correcting to below $63,000 in mid-April.
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Additionally, Thielen predicts that altcoins will be more impacted by this situation. Many altcoins have experienced sharp declines over the past week and are still far from their 2021 highs.
"Even if there is a correlation between halvings and altcoin rallies, as some predict, historical evidence suggests that such rallies typically don't begin until nearly six months later," Thielen said.
Gradual Selling Strategy by Bitcoin Miners
The report uses the example of Marathon, the world's largest Bitcoin miner, which is expected to sell some of its inventory gradually after the halving to avoid a drastic drop in revenue.
With current daily production of 28-30 BTC, this gradual sale could add 133 days of supply to the market, plus post-halving daily production estimated at around 14-15 BTC.
Thielen assumes that other miners will likely follow a similar strategy of liquidating some of their inventory gradually.
If all miners implemented this strategy, then “BTC sales could reach a maximum of $104 million per day,” which could reverse the imbalance between supply and demand that previously drove Bitcoin prices higher.
Marathon CEO Predictions on Bitcoin Price
Last week, Marathon CEO Fred Thiel said that the company's breakeven point for remaining operating profitably after the halving would be around $46,000 per BTC. He also estimates that there will be no significant price changes in the six months after the halving.
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Monitor price chart movements of Bitcoin (BTC) , Ethereum (ETH) , Solana (SOL) and other cryptos to find out today's crypto market trends in real-time on Bittime.
Also read:
Bitcoin Halving 2024: Could Altcoin Prices Skyrocket?
Approaching Halving, Bitcoin Hash Rate Reaches New ATH
Bitcoin Halving: Will More Institutional Investors Join In?
DISCLAIMER: This article is informational in nature and is not an offer or invitation to sell or buy any crypto assets. Trading crypto assets is a high-risk activity. Crypto asset prices are volatile, where prices can change significantly from time to time and Bittime is not responsible for changes in fluctuations in crypto asset exchange rates.
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