Bittime - Bad news for investors waiting for a spot Ethereum (ETH) ETF . The odds of ETF approval in May shrank sharply, from 75% to just 20% according to GSR, a leading crypto market.
GSR in its report stated that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) did not actively participate in the approval process and was influenced by political pressure.
As a result, the Ethereum spot ETF approval process has the potential to be pushed back to 2025 or 2026. Bloomberg analysts also lowered the estimated chance of approval to 30%.
January's optimism fades
Earlier this year, GSR estimated the chances of a spot Ethereum ETF approval in May at 75%. The optimism is based on Grayscale's victory at the Court of Appeals and approval of an Ethereum Futures ETF last October.
However, GSR analyst Brian Rudick now argues that there was virtually no active involvement from the SEC. In fact, the SEC may receive political pressure not to approve additional digital asset ETFs.
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Approval Process Predicted to Be Longer
An SEC investigation into Ether's security status is likely to further lower the chances of approval. GSR predicts the Ethereum spot ETF approval process will take a long time, and potentially involve legal action. Ethereum believes that approval of a spot Ethereum ETF is most likely to occur in 2025-2026.
Also Read: Less likely than a Bitcoin ETF to be approved for an Ether ETF?
Added Staking Feature to the ETF Application
Several ETF issuers have recently added Ether staking features in their ETF applications. Rudick said that while ETFs with staking yields are likely more attractive, it's hard to see why an issuer would add complexity to an already precarious approval process.
Rudick speculated that this move may have been intended to provoke a reaction from an unresponsive SEC, or as preparation for future staking if it fails to be approved in May. Both of these reasons, if true, also point to lower approval odds for May.
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Bloomberg Analysts Agree
Bloomberg ETF analysts had also previously lowered their May spot Ethereum ETF approval estimate to 30%. This Ethereum ETF approval cycle is felt to be inversely proportional to the Bitcoin ETF approval. Bloomberg analysts are increasingly less optimistic about getting approval in May. Less than 73 days remain until the deadline and there appears to be no significant progress.
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Monitor price chart movements of Bitcoin (BTC) , Ethereum (ETH) , Solana (SOL) and other cryptos to find out today's crypto market trends in real-time on Bittime.
Also Read:
Grayscale: Spot Ethereum ETF Worthy of Approval
Ethereum ETF Proposal Analysis: Expectations Drop by 30%?
Prediction: Ethereum ETF Will Be Rejected by SEC and ETH Price Will Freefall?
DISCLAIMER: This article is informational in nature and is not an offer or invitation to sell or buy any crypto assets. Trading crypto assets is a high-risk activity. Crypto asset prices are volatile, where prices can change significantly from time to time and Bittime is not responsible for changes in fluctuations in crypto asset exchange rates.
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