Bittime - Industry observers are now wary of the prospect of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot asset-based Ethereum Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in May.
Senior analyst at Bloomberg, Eric Balchunas, recently revealed a revised estimate of the chances of an Ethereum ETF approval to just 35%. This figure has dropped drastically compared to previous estimates which were in the range of 60% to 70%. The forecast correction reflects increasing skepticism regarding the regulator's green light for this crypto investment product.
Lack of Regulatory Activity Raises Doubts
Analysts' caution is based on a lack of real activity from regulators. This can be seen from the lack of follow-up discussions regarding the potential conversion of the Grayscale Ethereum Trust into an ETF. Although the meeting between Coinbase, Grayscale, and the SEC was considered a positive signal, the lack of official comments from the SEC post the meeting has dampened expectations.
Balchunas and other analysts such as James Seyffart and Eleanor Terret highlighted the lack of activity in the regulatory arena, even though the approval deadline is only two months away. In comparison, the spot Bitcoin ETF approval process was characterized by intense activity between the SEC and the ETF issuers for more than 10 weeks before it was finally approved.
Seyffart expressed his view, "The current Ethereum ETF approval cycle feels like the opposite of Bitcoin ETF approvals. The more we see/hear (and don't see/hear), the lower my optimism."
However, these analysts do not rule out the possibility of increased activity in the coming days. They also expressed confidence that Ethereum ETF approval will occur this year, although perhaps not in May.
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ETH (Ethereum) Price Today
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On March 12 2024, the price of ETH (Ethereum) was at IDR 63,455,639 per coin, an increase of 4% in 24 hours.
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Ethereum ETF Optimism with Notes
In the midst of the revised estimates, several industry players such as the Chief Legal Officer of Variant Fund, Jake Chervinsky, are still optimistic on record. He thinks the next few weeks could provide a clearer signal about the direction of the SEC's decision.
However, Chervinsky also raised concerns that the SEC might classify Ethereum as a security, making it reluctant to grant approval without court intervention.
The overall sentiment seems to lean toward skepticism. Major investment banks such as JPMorgan and TD Cowen also predicted little chance of approval in May.
In contrast to Bloomberg analysts, crypto market making company GSR maintains an optimistic outlook. They start with an estimated chance of approval of 70%. However, GSR acknowledged that this optimism could soon fade if there is no real progress in the next month.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered has consistently expressed confidence that the SEC will approve an Ethereum ETF in May.
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Ethereum ETF Approval: Between Hope and Doubt
The dynamics of Ethereum ETF approval in the United States are in the spotlight of global crypto market players. On the one hand, this approval is expected to increase Ethereum adoption and make it easier for institutional investors to enter the crypto ecosystem. However, on the other hand, the lack of certainty from the regulator gives rise to doubt and uncertainty.
Investors need to pay attention to the latest developments and consider various analyzes and predictions from experts before making investment decisions.
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How to Buy Ethereum (ETH) on Bittime
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Ethereum (ETH) is available on Bittime with the market pair ETH/IDR . To be able to buy ETH/IDR at Bittime, make sure you have registered and completed identity verification. Apart from that, also make sure that you have sufficient balance by depositing some funds into your wallet. For your information, the minimum purchase of assets on Bittime is IDR 10,000. After that, you can purchase crypto assets in the application.
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DISCLAIMER: This article is informational in nature and is not an offer or solicitation to sell or buy any crypto assets. Trading crypto assets is a high-risk activity. Crypto asset prices are volatile, where prices can change significantly from time to time and Bittime is not responsible for changes in fluctuations in crypto asset exchange rates.
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